INVESTIGATING THE DYNAMICS OF TUBERCULOSIS AND HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS AMONG TUBERCULOSIS PATIENTS IN FEDERAL MEDICAL CENTRE KEFFI USING LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB), remains the leading cause of death among people with HIV and one of the top 10 leading causes of death from a single infection worldwide (WHO, 2020). In 2018, Nigeria was listed as the first in Africa and sixth among the 30 countries of the world with highest burden of TB. Over time study has shown that the emergency and spread of drug resistance TB and high burden of HIV/AIDs has contributed to the complication and wide spread of TB in Nigeria. This study investigated the dynamics of TB and HIV among TB patients in Federal Medical Center Keffi, Nigeria using Logistic regression analysis. To achieve the aim of this study, dataset on recorded patients with Tuberculosis cases were collected from the DOT center, Federal Medical Center keffi, Nigeria. The data consisted of 1606 registered TB cases recorded between January 2015 to December 2020. Out of the 1606 TB cases examined, 693 representing 43.2% were females, while 913 representing 56.8% were male gender. Findings from the study show that out of the 1606 TB cases recorded, 308(19.2%) were diagnosed with extra pulmonary TB, while the remaining 1298(80.8%) cases were diagnosed to have pulmonary TB. Also, out of the 1606 TB cases recorded in the study, 1166(72.6%) tested HIV negative, while the remaining 440(27.4%) tested HIV positive. The findings obtained from the logistic regression analysis, for HIV model it revealed that age is statistically insignificant (p-value=0.431>0.05). But according to the result from the odds ratio test for HIV, older TB patients in age are 0.2% more likely to be infected by HIV compared to younger TB patients in age. Also, from the odds ratio test carried out, we found out that male TB patients has 86% more chances of been affected by HIV than the female TB patients. The result also indicated that patients with pulmonary TB cases have a 62% greater odds of developing HIV infection compared to does with extra-pulmonary TB. Classification test of logistic regression for both HIV and TB revealed to us about 72.60% and 80.82% level of correct classification, which implies a high level of agreement for our model. Finally, the result revealed that HIV and TB affects each other in a bi-directional way.